2022, new pattern of new energy vehicles

Data shows that Tesla delivered 936,000 vehicles in 2021, and BYD delivered 603,800 vehicles. Among "Wei Xiaoli", Xpeng Motors topped the list with 98,155 vehicles delivered, and Weilai topped the list with 98,155 vehicles delivered. Automobile and Li Auto ranked second and third with 91,429 and 90,491 units respectively.

What is particularly noteworthy is that compared with 2020, almost all manufacturers have doubled their growth.

Throughout 2021, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle industry has increased sharply, and hot searches have continued, making it very popular. At the same time, the new industrial pattern of the future has begun to take shape, and “it is difficult for new players to enter the game,” said Wang Rongjin, a partner at Jinbang Investment.

1. 2021 report card

From the data, compared with 2020, the new car-making forces are all Achieved substantial growth, with annual deliveries exceeding 90,000 vehicles.

At the same time, Nezha Automobile, WM Motor and Leapmotor followed closely, with delivery volumes of 69,674 vehicles, 44,157 vehicles and 43,121 vehicles respectively.

The overall new energy sales results of traditional car companies last year have not yet been announced. However, according to data released by the China Automobile Association, from January to November 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles It has reached 2.99 million vehicles, a cumulative increase of 166.8 times year-on-year.

For the future, sales growth is also a consensus.

According to Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, "This year (new energy vehicle sales) overall will be about 3.3 million vehicles, and it is estimated that in 2025, my country will Sales of new energy vehicles will be between 7 million and 9 million. "

In November 2020, the General Office of the State Council released the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)". The "Plan" proposes that by 2025, new energy vehicle sales will account for 20% of vehicle sales, approximately 5 million units.

It is obvious that this goal will be achieved at an accelerated pace. "The 5 million target may be achieved in 2023." An investor said.
 

2. Car-making forces, the pattern is initially determined

As we all know, the current car-making forces are mainly divided into three categories: one They are traditional car manufacturers represented by BYD, Geely, SAIC, etc.; second, they are new energy startups represented by Tesla, Xpeng Motors, NIO, etc., also known as new car-making forces; third, they are represented by Tesla, Xpeng Motors, NIO, etc. Internet manufacturers represented by Baidu, Huawei, and Alibaba.

From the perspective of sales, traditional car companies with capital, technology and market still have an advantage in this competition. Taking BYD as an example, data shows that BYD's new energy vehicle sales were 93,800 units in December, and its cumulative sales for the year were 603,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 218.3% compared with 2020.

Among the new car-making forces, Tesla is the well-deserved sales champion. Tesla’s annual delivery volume in 2021 reached 936,200 vehicles, approaching the 1 million mark. Compared with 2020 The annual growth rate was 436,000 units, an increase of 87.2%.

Returning to the new domestic car-making forces, there are only 4 players in the 2021 monthly "10,000-car club", namely Xiaopeng, Ideal, Weilai and Nezha.

It is worth noting that there are no Internet players in the "Ten Thousand Vehicles Club".

It is understood that in March this year, Huawei and Xiaokang Co., Ltd. released the Cyrus SF5 Huawei Smart Select Edition. Its sales throughout the year were less than 6,000 units, and Yu Chengdong set an internal target of 2022. The annual sales target is 300,000 vehicles.

Another player that has attracted much attention is Xiaomi. Since Lei Jun announced in March last year that he would invest 10 billion to build cars, relevant revelations have been flying like snowflakes. According to reports, as of November, Xiaomi has a team of more than 500 people building cars and is expected to release its first mass-produced car in 2024.

Regarding Xiaomi’s car manufacturing, Wang Rongjin said: “Xiaomi’s brand influence and supply chain integration capabilities are relatively strong. At present, it is not impossible to enter the top five, but for other manufacturers It seems that it is more difficult. ”

In addition to the existing players, there is another trend-combination.

Baidu and Geely jointly established Jidu Automobile, Huawei and Cyrus launched Wenjie, 360 and CATL invested in Nezha, SAIC and Alibaba established Zhiji……

In this regard, Wang Rongjin said: “At present, it is still a state where a hundred flowers are blooming and thousands of horses are galloping. State-owned enterprises, central enterprises, private enterprises, new forces, etc., each have their own signs, each has its own characteristics. Each has its own trump card, but if the timeline is extended to 20 to 30 years or longer, it will definitely become three or five major car companies in the future. "

However, for the follow-up. For manufacturers that want to enter the game, FAW Lihe and Chen Xiaolong expressed certain concerns: "Since the development of new energy vehicles in 2015, car companies that have mass-produced cars still have certain opportunities, but they have not yet reached the stage of mass production by 2021. First step, it is more difficult to re-enter the game. "

3. Subsidy exit, close combat

December 2021. On the 31st, four ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice").

The "Notice" stated that subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will gradually decline. In 2022, the subsidy standards for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021.

At the same time, the 2022 new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy will terminate on December 31, 2022, and vehicles registered after December 31, 2022 will no longer be given subsidies.

At this point, the new energy vehicle subsidy dividend that has been enjoyed for 12 years from 2009 to the present will press the end button. According to incomplete statistics, my country has subsidized a total of 147.8 billion and subsidized 1.9159 million vehicles. New energy vehicles.

“After more than ten years of development, my country’s new energy vehicle industry has successively gone through the policy-driven initial stage and the policy-market dual-driven transitional development stage. With the complete withdrawal of industrial subsidies in 2022, my country's new energy vehicles are truly entering a new stage of market-oriented development," said Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100.

With the disappearance of subsidy bonuses, car companies are also actively waiting to see changes and adapting.

Last year, Tesla raised the prices of the domestic Model 3 rear-wheel drive version, Model 3 rear-wheel drive regular version, and Model Y rear-wheel drive regular version by nearly Ranging from 5,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan.

Free becomes an additional paid service.

Seeing the price increase coming, the consumer side is even more eager to move, changing from "should I buy an electric car?" to "should I buy an electric car now?"

However, not every car company has the capital to increase prices.

Taking WM Motor as an example, it recently announced a "guaranteed price" policy, that is, its EX5 model will not be affected by the reduction of subsidies and will still be sold at the original transaction price.

What is even more worrying is that from the financial report, the more cars sold, the more the car companies will lose. Judging from the third quarter financial report of "Wei Xiaoli" in 2021, the third quarter Xpeng, which delivered the most new cars in the third quarter, saw its losses expand. In comparison, NIO and Ideal, which sold fewer cars, both saw their losses narrower year-on-year.

However, “At this stage, the impact of financial subsidies on the new energy vehicle industry has been very small, and the marginal effect is very weak.” Wang Rongjin said: “At the same time, everyone has begun to focus on product strength. Work hard to strengthen cost control. ”

In addition, there is also a dual-point policy at this stage. The dual-point policy that will be implemented from April 1, 2018 will reduce fuel consumption. Points and new energy points are managed in parallel and designed in an associated manner.

However, while promoting the development of new energy vehicles, the point price has also increased from 825 yuan/minute in 2018 to 2,100 yuan/minute in 2021.

It is obvious that with the decline of state subsidies and the continuous increase in points transaction prices, controlling costs and increasing profits will become more urgent tasks for car companies. The real competition among new energy car companies The hand-to-hand combat begins.

4. Who will win?

At present, in the entire new energy vehicle competition, there may be more than a hundred players with qualifications, but shuffling or elimination seems inevitable.

“There will be a major corporate reshuffle in 5-10 years, and a group of companies will definitely be eliminated. Who will win? It’s impossible now.predict. "Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, said.

In addition to Ouyang Minggao, Geely Chairman Li Shufu and Xpeng Motors founder He Xiaopeng have previously issued Such predictions have been made:

Li Shufu, Chairman of Geely Holding Group: Only 2-3 automobile companies will survive in the future.

Founder of Xpeng Motors. He Xiaopeng: There will be no more than 10 major new energy players in the future, and each company’s annual revenue will exceed US$300 billion.

The future US$300 billion is coveted, but first there must be someone to get involved. Capital.

Data shows that the total investment and financing in the primary and secondary markets in the direction of complete vehicles in 2021 will reach 159.19 billion yuan. Many investors have unanimously stated: "There will be more next year, creating Cars are inherently a money-consuming business. "

"Among the three major car-making forces, I prefer the new car-making forces. " Chen Xiaolong said, "Compared with other forces, the new forces are more 'radical' and perform better in publicity and the market. However, it is possible for traditional car companies to do so if they have R&D capabilities and capital reserves. "

No one can give a conclusion on who will survive. However, from the perspective of investor Wang Rongjin, "The key depends on whether it can continue to iterate and keep up with the industry. It has a place, and if it cannot keep up, it may be eliminated, just like the wave of evolution from traditional mobile phones to smart phones. ”